Andre Fili Vs Michael Johnson Beef
The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 94: Poirier vs. Johnson
Dustin Poirier attempts to punch his ticket to the lightweight elite against Michael Johnson. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images
The Octagon heads to Hidalgo, Texas, on Saturday with a fun show on Fox Sports 1. Name value isn't the card's strong suit, but it should produce action from top to bottom.
In the main event, Dustin Poirier takes on Michael Johnson in a barnburner of a fight between lightweight contenders on the cusp of the elite in MMA's most stacked division. On paper, the matchup between skilled, powerful and quick-paced strikers looks like a potential Fight of the Year contender.
Similarly well-matched bouts adorn the rest of the card. The co-main event between Uriah Hall and Derek Brunson matches up-and-comers in a stagnant middleweight division and could turn into a grinding affair, but the fight between Evan Dunham and late replacement Rick Glenn will be all action. The main card opener features blue-chip prospect Islam Makhachev and Chris Wade in a strong lightweight scrap.
There are no well-known names on the preliminary segment, but as with the main card, action fights should abound.
Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
Randy Brown takes on Erick Montano in the Fight Pass main event. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images
Bantamweights
Alejandro Perez (17-6; 3-1 UFC) vs. Albert Morales (6-0; 0-0 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America winner Perez faces the debuting Morales, who replaces an injured Manny Gamburyan. Perez stumbled out of the gate, losing to Patrick Williams, but since then he's shown real improvement by beating Scott Jorgensen and Ian Entwistle. Morales defeated regional veteran Mario Israel under the Resurrection Fighting Alliance banner in his last outing.
Morales has only been a pro for 20 months, but he's racked up six wins during that time, five by stoppage, and looks to be a real talent. He's huge for the division at 5'9" and has excellent physical tools, including quickness, explosiveness, hand speed and legitimate power. He's a crisp boxer, working at a quick pace late into the fight, and he seems to know what he's doing as a wrestler and grappler.
Perez is an active and dangerous striker. He works in combination and does a great job hiding his powerful kicks, especially to the legs, behind his punches. Pace is a strong suit, and he has become more technically sound while reining in some of his wildness but retaining his killer instinct and aggression. Quickness of both hands and feet powers his game and makes his relative lack of size less of an issue.
The occasional takedown adds some variety for Perez, but for the most part he's an open-space striker. He's an average defensive wrestler and offers nothing from his back, but on top he knows how to defend and control while dropping a steady stream of strikes.
Prediction:This is a great stylistic matchup. If it plays out on the feet, it will pit Perez's movement and combination striking against Morales' power and pressure, and that promises serious action. If Perez can mix in a few takedowns, though, he should be able to scrape out a decision against the talented debutant.
Welterweights
Erick Montano (7-3; 1-0 UFC) vs. Randy Brown (7-1; 1-1 UFC)
TUF: Latin America 2 winner Montano takes on Brown, a product of the UFC'sLooking for a Fight web series. Montano defeated Enrique Marin in a close fight to win the show, while Brown has split his two UFC outings, defeating Matt Dwyer before falling victim to Michael Graves in April.
Montano isn't particularly athletic, but he's a solid boxer with a nice jab and a knack for combinations. He's a surprisingly good wrestler, too, and is happy to grind it out on the mat. The 6'3" Brown is a striker by trade who fires off long, straight punches and does damaging work in the clinch. Good defensive wrestling mostly keeps him standing, but he's a relative novice on the ground.
Prediction:The physical gap between the two is enormous, both in terms of size and athleticism. Brown stuffs the takedowns, keeps Montano on the outside and picks him apart for a decision win.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
Brazil's Carlos Junior attempts to get back on track. Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images
Bantamweights
Joey Gomez (6-1; 0-1 UFC) vs. Jose Quinonez (4-2; 1-1 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America runner-up Quinonez, a native of Mexico, takes on the American Gomez in a potentially interesting bantamweight scrap. Gomez dropped his debut to Rob Font in January, while Quinonez won his last bout against Leonardo Morales in June 2015. The loser will likely be cut with a loss.
The 5'10" Gomez is huge for the division and uses his height well with a crisp, educated jab and a long right hand. Mostly a boxer, he has serious power and works at a good pace. Quinonez too is mostly a striker, though he melds punches and kicks and works in a surprisingly effective takedown game as well.
Prediction:It's hard to call either way, but Gomez looks to be the more dangerous fighter, while Quinonez is more athletic and more diverse. Quinonez takes a decision.
Middleweights
Antonio Carlos Junior (5-2, 1 N/C; 2-2, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Leonardo Guimaraes (11-2, 1 N/C; 0-1 UFC)
TUF: Brazil 3winner Carlos Junior takes on fellow Brazilian Guimaraes in a decent middleweight bout. Despite possessing obvious talent, Carlos Junior has struggled in the UFC and fell to Australian veteran Dan Kelly in March. Guimaraes debuted on short notice against Anthony Smith in February and dropped a competitive decision.
Carlos Junior is a good athlete with excellent speed, strength and power. While still a developing striker, he strings together solid combinations and uses them to disguise a technical takedown game. Grappling is his wheelhouse, and he excels at getting to the back and finding the choke.
Guimaraes is a brawler with big power in his hands and some legitimate technical skill. He's especially dangerous on the counter and puts together nice combinations. That's the extent of his game, though, and he's lacking as a wrestler.
Prediction:Unless Carlos Junior walks into a counter, this is his fight to lose. He works takedowns and finds the choke in the first round.
Welterweights
Augusto Montano (15-2; 1-1 UFC) vs. Belal Muhammad (9-1; 0-1 UFC)
Mexico's Montano returns to action after a layoff of more than a year and takes on the American Muhammad. Montano won his debut, but his last fight, against Irishman Cathal Pendred, was one of the worst of 2015. Muhammad debuted in impressive fashion, losing a close and exciting decision against Alan Jouban in July.
Muhammad is a crisp, technical striker. His jab is punishing and consistent, and he puts together sharp combinations. Takedowns give him some variety, but he's not particularly interested in grappling for long stretches. Montano too prefers to strike, though he prefers kicking range. He circles and then leaps in with a shot and relies on the clinch as a backup to that rangy game.
Prediction:Muhammad's footwork should be good enough to walk Montano down and piece him up with his quick-paced boxing game. The American takes a decision.
Featherweights
Gabriel Benitez (18-5; 2-1 UFC) vs. Sam Sicilia (15-6; 5-5 UFC)
TUF: Latin Americaveteran Benitez takes onTUF 15veteran Sicilia in what should be a violent featherweight scrap. Benitez won two in a row but dropped his last fight to Andre Fili, while Sicilia fell to Doo Ho Choi by knockout last November, which snapped a two-fight winning streak.
Sicilia's game is all about the right hand. He packs serious power in it and mixes in the occasional kick and takedown, but he's mostly looking to put leather on his opponent. Benitez is a strong kicker in particular and a sharp, athletic striker in general, though he has struggled to stuff takedowns.
Prediction:Even if he can't keep this standing forever, Benitez works at a much faster pace and is a more technical and diverse striker than Sicilia in general. He knocks out Sicilia in the second round.
Chris Wade vs. Islam Makhachev
Makhachev returns to action against Long Island's Wade. Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images
Lightweights
Islam Makhachev (12-1; 1-1 UFC) vs. Chris Wade (11-2; 4-1 UFC)
Blue-chip prospect Makhachev returns to action for the first time since suffering the first loss of his career and a brief suspension. Adriano Martins knocked out the Dagestani last October, but before that the longtime training partner and friend of Khabib Nurmagomedov had established himself as a lightweight to watch. Long Island's Wade went 3-0 to start his UFC career, but stumbled against Rustam Khabilov in May.
The winner will be one step closer to the top in a stacked division.
Makhachev, a Master of Sport in Combat Sambo, has a well-rounded game. The southpaw's striking is probably his worst facet, but he still boasts strong pressure footwork, a nice kicking game and real power in his hands, which he almost always throws in combinations of two or three punches. He's vulnerable to counters, though, and doesn't move his head much.
Striking is very much an afterthought. Makhachev does his best work in the clinch, where he strings together dizzying chains of some of the prettiest trips and throws you'll ever see. Punches lead him into the clinch, and if forced to break, he's happy to land shots on the exit as well.
Shot takedowns are a strength as well, and like his training partner, Nurmagomedov, Makhachev combines singles, doubles, trips and throws into seamless chains. Opponents might stuff one, two, three or even four attempts, but the fifth will eventually succeed.
On the mat, Makhachev is suffocating. He transitions smoothly from takedowns to control, and there's no real distinction between his wrestling and grappling games.
He's happy to pound away from the top, but the second his opponent tries to escape, he's looking for the back or a choke. If that fails, he looks for a mat return, and if his opponent gets up, then that's just an opportunity to land a strike and find another takedown.
Wade's background is in wrestling, and he competed at the Division III level. He's a competent combination striker on the feet and does a good job of disguising his kicks behind punches, but he's hittable and doesn't work at a great pace.
The American's real strength is in the clinch, where he has a great array of trips and throws along with strong control. He's less comfortable with shot takedowns, but still boasts good chains and some variety with his entries. On the mat, he mostly controls, but he has a nice guillotine choke and move to the back in transitions.
Betting Odds
Makhachev -120, Wade +100
Prediction
Wade probably has the advantage in pure kickboxing, and on paper his wrestling skills should allow him to keep the fight standing to use it. In practice, however, Makhachev looks to be a superior wrestler, and if Wade allows him into the clinch, that should become clear. Makhachev takes a decision with takedown chains and ground control.
Roan Carneiro vs. Kenny Robertson
Roan Carneiro takes on Kenny Robertson in a good welterweight fight. Harry How/Getty Images
Welterweights
Roan Carneiro (20-10; 3-4 UFC) vs. Kenny Robertson (15-4; 4-4 UFC)
Veteran welterweights meet in a solid matchup. Both fighters badly need a win after losses in their last outing; Robertson dropped a fight to Ben Saunders in July 2015, which snapped a three-fight winning streak, while Carneiro was blown out by Derek Brunson at middleweight in February.
Carneiro is a well-rounded veteran who knows exactly what he's trying to accomplish. He throws real heat on the feet in both his kicks and punches, but those strikes serve only to disguise his forward movement and level changes. Getting the fight into the clinch or onto the ground is his goal, and he's a strong wrestler, particularly against the fence.
On the mat, Carneiro has a diverse and dangerous game. Ground strikes open up passes, and he can maintain effortless control for minutes at a time, all while hunting for the submission. He isn't afraid to give up position for an attempt to end the fight, but he always leaves himself an out if the submission goes nowhere.
The front headlock is a specialty, and Carneiro really excels at getting to the back. It's the strongest part of his game, and his rear-naked choke is a thing of beauty.
Robertson too has the stripped-down, effective game of a veteran. He's aggressive and active from the opening bell, pushing his opponent back toward the fence with punching combinations and the occasional kick. Legitimate pop makes him a threat, and opponents can't afford to ignore him on the feet.
This pressure opens up Robertson's clinch entries and takedowns—the real meat of his game. He's an active wrestler who is more relentless than explosive or authoritative with his finishes, and he relies heavily on chains and grinding against the fence until he can open up the takedown.
On the mat, Robertson is dangerous. He's an effective ground striker with an active passing game, and whenever the fight hits the ground he hunts constantly for the submission. Kneebars and passes to the back are his specialties.
Betting Odds
Carneiro -115, Robertson -105
Prediction
This is a close matchup between two similar fighters. Robertson is the better and more active striker, while Carneiro is more dangerous on the mat, and both are effective but not outstanding wrestlers. If Robertson can keep this standing, he should be able to outwork Carneiro, and he's good enough on the mat to survive. Robertson wins a decision.
Chas Skelly vs. Maximo Blanco
Blanco takes on Skelly in a fun featherweight matchup. Gregory Payan/Associated Press
Featherweights
Chas Skelly (15-2; 4-2 UFC) vs. Maximo Blanco (12-7-1, 1 N/C; 4-4 UFC)
Venezuela's Blanco takes on the American Skelly in a solid featherweight scrap. Skelly fell short against Darren Elkins in his last outing, which snapped a four-fight winning streak. Blanco fell victim to a rear-naked choke from the debuting Luke Sanders in January after winning three in a row.
Skelly is a grinder. An awkward striker, he's still surprisingly effective with his 5'11" frame, slinging hard strikes from confusing angles. He's bad defensively, though, and he doesn't maintain an effective pace for very long.
The clinch is Skelly's wheelhouse, where his long limbs give him great leverage. He throws hard knees and punches on the inside and has a nice array of trips. He's less effective with shot takedowns, though, and isn't a good finisher; he relies on relentless chains and wearing his opponent down against the fence. Despite his wrestling background, he's not particularly good at stuffing takedowns.
On the mat, Skelly is aggressive, constantly hunting for the finish. He's a fan of leg locks and has a particular gift for getting to the back in transitions, where the rear-naked choke is his specialty.
Blanco is a wild man. An outstanding athlete with crazy speed and power, the former wrestler mostly prefers to strike in MMA. He's aggressive and loves to come after his opponent, mixing in sharp punch-kick combinations with spinning strikes and flying knees. His pace is fast, and he can maintain it for longer than you might expect considering the amount of energy he expends with his explosive style.
When the mood strikes, Blanco can still hit authoritative, powerful takedowns, but he rarely looks to control for long. Conversely, he's a good defensive wrestler and has only struggled with much larger opponents.
Betting Odds
Skelly -195, Blanco +160
Prediction
Cardio has been a problem for both fighters, but more so for Skelly than Blanco, even when working at a slower pace. Blanco's habit of making bad decisions could cost him here, but he's a drastically superior athlete and striker. He finishes Skelly late in the second round.
Evan Dunham vs. Rick Glenn
Evan Dunham has bounced back in recent years. Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images
Lighweights
Evan Dunham (17-6; 10-6 UFC) vs. Rick Glenn (18-3-1; 0-0 UFC)
Lightweight staple Dunham draws Glenn, the former World Series of Fighting featherweight champion, as a late replacement for the injured Abel Trujillo.
Dunham has been up and down in recent years, losing a trio of fights to elite lightweights such as Donald Cerrone before rebounding with three straight wins, most recently a decision over Joe Lauzon. Glenn has lost just one fight since 2010, a submission to current WSOF champion Lance Palmer, while defeating a who's who of regional competition, including former WSOF champion Georgi Karakhanyan.
Glenn is a great pickup by the UFC, whether he stays at lightweight or moves back down to 145 pounds. A boxer in his youth, the southpaw isn't especially fast, but he's aggressive, durable, technically sound and works at a great pace that wears his opponents down as the fight goes on. UFC welterweight Tim Means would be the best comparison for his skill sets.
Pressure is Glenn's wheelhouse, and he showcases an effective combination of footwork and arcing strikes—round kicks and hooks—to cut off the cage and force his opponent toward the fence. When his opponent backs up, Glenn mixes up punching combinations at a rapid pace to the head and body. The Iowa native has a great sense of rhythm, timing and how to place his shots.
While he's good at range, the clinch is Glenn's wheelhouse. His 6'0" frame gives him great leverage, which he puts to use with a steady diet of knees to the body and the occasional elbow. He's not shy about breaking off, either, and is happy to use an exit as an opportunity to land a big shot.
Wrestling is Glenn's weakest skill set. He's no better than an average defensive wrestler, and while he can hit the occasional trip, he's not an especially active takedown artist. He offers little from his back, but if he can get on top, he's a surprisingly dangerous ground striker who works at an excellent pace and packs real power.
Dunham is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division. There are no holes in his game aside from a lack of top-end athleticism and power, and outside the very best lightweights in the world, that's not something that can be exploited.
On the feet, the southpaw is an increasingly crisp and effective boxer. He cuts good angles through the space of the cage, and when he commits to a combination, he drops smooth sequences of three to six punches. His strike selection in those combinations is excellent: He doubles hooks, moves between the head and the body and keeps his feet moving to find angles as he throws.
Volume is the best aspect of this game, and Dunham will routinely throw 15 or 20 strikes per minute. That's an outstanding pace on par with the Diaz brothers.
Dunham is also a sturdy wrestler and clinch fighter with an excellent grasp of technique and fundamentals. He's constantly digging for underhooks on the inside and is a stout defender of takedowns; since 2013 he's conceded takedowns only to Donald Cerrone and Gleison Tibau. Offensively, he occasionally struggles to set up his shots but has made substantial improvements to that as well.
On the mat, Dunham is a strong top-control artist. He maintains good control, passes smoothly and can be a forceful ground striker when he postures up. He's not much of a submission hunter at this stage in his career, but will still look for an opportunity when it presents itself.
Betting Odds
Dunham -280, Glenn +240
Prediction
This is a strong contender for Fight of the Night honors. Both Glenn and Dunham work fast on the feet and like to wear down their opponents with their pace, so this should play out as a rapid-fire, back-and-forth striking match for long stretches.
The difference should be Dunham's wrestling chops. If he can break Glenn's rhythm on the feet with the occasional takedown, he can cement otherwise-close rounds. Dunham takes a fun decision.
Uriah Hall vs. Derek Brunson
Hall tries to get back on track against the rising Brunson. Pat Scala /Zuffa LLC/Getty Images
Middleweights
Uriah Hall (12-6; 5-4 UFC) vs. Derek Brunson (15-3; 6-1 UFC)
Hall entered the UFC with a ton of hype back in 2013, but his career has been consistent only in its ups and downs, and he has yet to reach the heights many predicted for him. With that said, he's still a respectable fighter, and a loss to Robert Whittaker last November snapped a two-fight winning streak that included a shocking knockout of Gegard Mousasi.
Brunson, his opponent, is one of the most promising up-and-comers in the middleweight division. He has won four in a row, the last three by knockout, and this fight with Hall is a chance to prove he belongs among the elite at 185 pounds.
Hall is a striker by trade, and one whose talent and skill are obvious. The Jamaican-American is quick, strong, powerful and has an exceptional depth of technical knowledge, but at the same time, he makes puzzling decisions in the cage and struggles when his opponent doesn't consent to fight in precisely the fashion Hall would prefer.
In other words, Hall's ability to force his opponent into his kind of fight—an outside striking battle where his speed and kicking arsenal come into play—is limited.
To play that kind of game, a fighter needs to move consistently, set the distance with rangy strikes and then immediately pivot out to get away from the fence when the opponent comes forward. Hall can usually be counted on to do two of those things, but putting all three together is a struggle.
Still, when Hall is on, he's devastating. His kicks are lightning-fast and crisp, his jab is a thing of utter beauty, and his counter right hand is monstrously powerful even when he's stepping backward. Spinning kicks of all sorts and flying knees, all executed with tremendous speed and precision, add to the danger.
There's nothing wrong with Hall's clinch game, which features strong knees and good control, but he's often too willing to be held against the fence. The same goes for his takedown defense, which is excellent, but he lacks urgency in separating and getting back to range. The occasional takedown and period of top control has served him well for the sake of variety, and he can be downright violent with his ground striking.
Brunson can do a bit of everything. The athletic southpaw has a background in wrestling at the Division II level, but he's a well-rounded fighter with skills in every area at this point in his career.
At range, Brunson is effective but a bit awkward. He throws hard kicks, especially from the left side, and packs serious power in his left hand. When he flurries at close range, he's dangerous and has a great sense of killer instinct.
The problem is closing the distance. Brunson's understanding of movement is fine, but his footwork is basic and he relies on his raw speed to cover the last burst of distance when he backs his opponent to the fence. This means Brunson often reaches and lets his head drift forward, leaving him open to counters.
That last burst of speed is essential for Brunson, because while he's a good-enough striker, grinding is his best suit. He's strong in the clinch and has a knack for pinning his opponent against the fence, where he drops hard successions of punches, elbows and knees. Entire rounds can pass without his opponent escaping, especially when he mixes in takedowns.
Brunson is still an active and accomplished wrestler. His shots in open space are explosive, and he can chain attempts against the fence, which meld nicely with his control in the clinch. On the defensive side, Brunson has never been taken down in Strikeforce or the UFC.
While he's happy to control, Brunson is a violent ground striker when he postures up. Again, the fence is his ally, and he's excellent at pinning his opponent's hips in place so he can drop bombs.
Betting Odds
Brunson -185, Hall +160
Prediction
Brunson's game plan is clear: come out hot, pressure Hall against the fence and wear him down in the clinch and with takedown attempts. It's that simple. Take away Hall's space and don't mess around with him at range any more than absolutely necessary.
It wouldn't be surprising if Hall snuck in a devastating counter as Brunson reaches to cover the distance, but until Hall proves he can stick and move against an aggressive, durable opponent, it's hard to pick him in this kind of matchup. The pick is Brunson by decision.
Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Johnson
Dustin Poirier is on a great run at 155 pounds. Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Getty Images
Main Event: Lightweights
Dustin Poirier (20-4; 12-3 UFC) vs. Michael Johnson (16-10; 8-6 UFC)
Poirier lost to Conor McGregor two years ago, but that might have been a blessing in disguise. The Louisiana native moved back up to 155 pounds from featherweight, and since then he's run off four consecutive wins, three of them by devastating first-round knockout. Bobby Green was the latest to fall beneath Poirier's barrage of punches in June, and the Louisiana native finally looks to be fulfilling his massive potential.
Johnson, the runner-up on the 12th season of The Ultimate Fighter, has been up and down over the last several years. He strung together four consecutive wins between 2013 and 2015, but has now dropped two in a row—the first a contentious decision loss to Beneil Dariush and the second a clear decision to the resurgent Nate Diaz.
This has all the makings of a great fight, but if Poirier can pull it off, he'll be a serious threat to make a run at the title in the stacked lightweight division.
Poirier is a puncher with great craft and skill to his striking game. While the aggressive southpaw has always had big power, it's a series of distinct technical improvements that have made him a much greater threat to land his shots and survive his opponents' in the last two years.
Better footwork is the major component of that shift. In his younger years, Poirier was an almost entirely linear fighter who used shift steps, moving from southpaw to orthodox—and vice versa—to cover distance. He still uses those shift steps—but sparingly—and in combination with nice lateral movement and precise pivots and turns.
This helps Poirier stay close to his opponent and makes him a dangerous counterpuncher, particularly when he moves his head, which he does much more often than he used to. When his opponent throws, Poirier can sidestep while slipping, cut an angle and come back with a big sequence of punches.
Combination punching in the pocket is Poirier's bread and butter. He really excels at mixing up his shots both in variety and location, slipping right hooks around the guard or firing a straight left through it and then going down to the body or legs when his opponent shells up.
While not a defensive mastermind, Poirier doesn't eat as many shots as he used to, and he doesn't have to be Jose Aldo or Anderson Silva to be a threat at close range.
Things don't get any better for Poirier's opponents in the clinch. The Louisianan is beastly strong and owns a slick arsenal of dirty boxing techniques, particularly when he can grab ahold with a collar tie and then work combinations of punches and elbows with his free hand. He's genuinely nasty on the inside—one of the better clinch fighters in the division.
While he doesn't go for takedowns as much as he used to, Poirier is a better technical wrestler as well. His footwork and habit of fighting in the pocket mean that he's almost always close, which helps set up his shots, particularly against the fence. Strong defensive wrestling keeps him standing, but he hasn't been tested in a while.
From top position, Poirier is a dangerous ground striker with a clean, technical game. His control is suffocating, and if his opponent tries to scramble, Poirier has a vicious series of front headlock chokes.
Johnson is a versatile and athletic striker with great speed and substantial power of his own. He too is a southpaw and one with a substantial amount of technical craft honed under the great Dutch-style kickboxing coach Henri Hooft.
Measured aggression is Johnson's base style. When necessary, he can bring relentless pressure, as he did to Edson Barboza in 2015, but for the most part, Johnson prefers to press forward in more controlled fashion. He flicks crisp jabs and hard low kicks and then commits to potent left straights, particularly as counters in the pocket.
If the matchup calls for it, however, Johnson is perfectly capable of sticking and moving on the outside and letting his opponent come to him. The jab can enforce distance as well as cover his forward movement, and his crisp footwork and command of angles is just as effective for creating avenues of escape from his opponent's pressure as it is for pressuring of Johnson's own.
Pace is a major strength of Johnson's game. His footwork keeps him close to his opponent, and without having to leap into range, he can drop a steady stream of shots. While not an exceptional defensive fighter, he's good enough to avoid taking a ton of damage in the pocket.
Excellent takedown defense keeps Johnson standing, and in fact, he hasn't conceded a takedown in more than three years. If put on the mat, he offers nothing from his back, though, and has a habit of panicking in transitions. Offensively he can hit the occasional double, but he rarely uses it and mostly looks to control if he finds himself on top.
Betting Odds
Poirier -155, Johnson +135
Prediction
This is a great matchup and, as the betting odds indicate, a close one. Johnson's versatility will be key: He doesn't want to get into a slugging match with Poirier in the pocket and the clinch, so he'll have to use his jab and low kicks to establish long range and then use his crisp footwork and movement to get out of the way when Poirier inevitably comes back with counters.
This means Johnson will have to temper his usual aggression, while Poirier merely needs to protect himself and wait for his opportunities. It would benefit Poirier to try to work a bit more slowly than usual, and with five rounds ahead of him, that will probably be part of the plan.
In a more measured fight that still features a great deal of action, Poirier will get his chances on the counter, and if he can draw Johnson into even a couple of exchanges per round, he should be able to make them count. The pick is Poirier by knockout in the fourth round.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of theHeavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. For the history enthusiasts out there, he also hosts The Fall of Rome Podcaston the end of the Roman Empire. He can be found on Twitter and onFacebook.
Source: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2663182-the-complete-guide-to-ufc-fight-night-94-poirier-vs-johnson
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